It has been a great challenge to improve the forecast accuracy of track, intensity and structure of typhoon 3-7 days in advance, because the environmental flow and typhoon frequently undergo major changes, and the interaction between environmental flow and typhoon further increases the complexity. To improve the forecast skill in 3-7 days, extend forecast reliability out to 7 days, and quantify and reduce forecast uncertainty for typhoon, fundamental understanding of the evolution of typhoon, improved numerical model and data assimilation for typhoon, and advanced forecasting theories and techniques, are all required. To improve the understanding of these essential aspects for typhoon forecast, the grant “Key Dynamic and Thermodynamic Processes and Prediction for the Evolution of Typhoon Intensity and Structure” is funded by the National Key Research and Development Program in 2017. The grant focuses on the dynamic and thermodynamic processes during the evolution of typhoon, the predictability of track, intensity and structure of typhoon, the key physical processes and parameterization schemes for the typhoon numerical model, the multi-scale hybrid ensemble-variational data assimilation for typhoon, and the forecasting techniques for track, intensity of structure of typhoon. The goals are to deliver forecast products of track, intensity and structure of typhoon 3-7 days in advance, and develop the international collaborative and applied platform for the Northwest Pacific Ocean typhoon monitoring and forecasting, provide service for natural disaster risk management. A team in which majority of members dedicate to the scientific research, development of numerical model and forecasting techniques for typhoon, will build up at the end. For more information please visit the website:
对于台风3-7天的预报，无论是路径、强度或结构，目前我国的业务预报水平都较低。在3-7天的预报时效中，台风本身及其环境都具有多变特征，且台风与其环境之间的相互作用更为复杂，造成预报不确定性大大增加。所以，无论在基础理论、数值预报模式和预报理论及技术等方面都面临着巨大的挑战。国家重点研发计划项目“台风强度/结构变化的关键动力-热力过程及预报理论研究”将重点解决影响3-7天台风路径、强度与结构预报的关键科学问题，从影响台风过程的多尺度性、环境多变性等角度来构建项目的研究思路，分别围绕台风路径、强度和结构演变的机理及可预报性，台风数值模式中的关键物理过程和参数化方案，台风的多尺度集合-变分同化方案及卫星资料的同化，台风3-7 天路径、强度和结构的预报技术等几个层面，开展一体化的理论研究和预报技术攻关。期望通过本项目的实施，提供时效3-7天、精度达到国际同类水平的实时台风路径、强度与结构的客观预报产品，建立西北太平洋台风监测预报国际合作技术应用示范平台，发表一批SCI等高水平论文，培养一支我国台风理论研究与预报技术开发相融合的高水平研究团队，推动我国台风理论研究和数值预报的可持续发展，服务于国家的防灾减灾。